File:Downweighting pre1950 2012-02-06 212202.png

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English: Based upon the information provided in the table of http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_off-season_Atlantic_hurricanes#Chronology on 2012-02-05, this is a regression fit to the inter-arrival times of such hurricanes, with confidence limits. An earlier graphic of this was previously posted. Commentators observed that the pre-1950 records of hurricanes might be incomplete and should not contribute to the assessment. While there is not strong evidence that, e.g., the distributions of reported storm severity differ statistically from one another, this graphic provides a modified version of the previous where the pre-1950 data are systematically downweighted to the point of being ignored, and the regression line is recalculated and re-displayed for each case. Until the previous observations are only weighted by 0.05 with 0.95 for the post-1950 does the regression line fall outside of the original 2 standard error confidence band.
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Author Jan Galkowski

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current14:17, 7 February 2012Thumbnail for version as of 14:17, 7 February 20121,356 × 797 (36 KB)Empirical bayesian (talk | contribs)

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