File:Pandemics Depress the Economy, Public Health Interventions Do Not - Evidence from the 1918 Flu.pdf

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Pandemics Depress the Economy, Public Health Interventions Do Not: Evidence from the 1918 Flu

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English: What are the economic consequences of an influenza pandemic? And given the pandemic, what are the economic costs and benefits of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI)? Using geographic variation in mortality during the 1918 Flu Pandemic in the U.S., we find that more exposed areas experience a sharp and persistent decline in economic activity. The estimates imply that the pandemic reduced manufacturing output by 18%. The downturn is driven by both supply and demand-side channels. Further, building on findings from the epidemiology literature establishing that NPIs decrease influenza mortality, we use variation in the timing and intensity of NPIs across U.S. cities to study their economic effects. We find that cities that intervened earlier and more aggressively do not perform worse and, if anything, grow faster after the pandemic is over. Our findings thus indicate that NPIs not only lower mortality; they also mitigate the adverse economic consequences of a pandemic.
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Source https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3561560#
Author

Sergio Correia

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Stephan Luck

Federal Reserve Bank of New York Emil Verner

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management

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This work is in the public domain in the United States because it is a work prepared by an officer or employee of the United States Government as part of that person’s official duties under the terms of Title 17, Chapter 1, Section 105 of the US Code. Note: This only applies to original works of the Federal Government and not to the work of any individual U.S. state, territory, commonwealth, county, municipality, or any other subdivision. This template also does not apply to postage stamp designs published by the United States Postal Service since 1978. (See § 313.6(C)(1) of Compendium of U.S. Copyright Office Practices). It also does not apply to certain US coins; see The US Mint Terms of Use.

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current21:09, 26 March 2020Thumbnail for version as of 21:09, 26 March 20201,275 × 1,650, 44 pages (2.02 MB)Koavf (talk | contribs)Uploaded a work by Sergio Correia Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Stephan Luck Federal Reserve Bank of New York Emil Verner Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management from https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3561560# with UploadWizard

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