File:Korona simulaatio R0 n vaikutus 1.svg
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editDescriptionKorona simulaatio R0 n vaikutus 1.svg |
Suomi: R0:n vaikutus SIRD-mallissa koronavirustapausten määriin
English: Effect of R0 to covid-19 cases with simulated with SIRD model |
Date | |
Source | Own work |
Author | Merikanto |
Python source code to this SIRD simulation
- Covid-19 etc. SIRD model Python script
- attempt to simulate Covid-19 epidemy
- can simulate multiple rounds
- main params: R0,infection ceiling
-
- Note: this program is for educational purposes only
- not actual simulation of epidemies
- do not take account changes in R0 value
- due to lockdowns and other measures
- not times in icu etc
import math as math
import numpy as np
import scipy as sp
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import pandas as pd
import matplotlib.dates as mdates
from matplotlib.ticker import NullFormatter
from matplotlib.dates import MonthLocator, DateFormatter
allit=[]
tehollet=[]
sairaalaant=[]
kuoleet=[]
imaxit=[]
icumaxit=[]
g_ttt=[]
g_sss=[]
g_iii=[]
g_rrr=[]
g_ddd=[]
g_icu=[]
g_hosp=[]
g_ddd2=[]
def sird_malli_koe_2(pitu,na,i,s,r,d,r0,rt,kontakt,gamma,beta,delta,khospi,kiku):
global allit
global tehollet
global sairaalaant
global kuoleet
ttt=np.linspace(0,pitu,pitu)
sss=np.linspace(0,pitu,pitu)
iii=np.linspace(0,pitu,pitu)
rrr=np.linspace(0,pitu,pitu)
ddd=np.linspace(0,pitu,pitu)
icu=np.linspace(0,pitu,pitu)
hosp=np.linspace(0,pitu,pitu)
ddd2=np.linspace(0,pitu,pitu)
for n in range(0,(pitu)):
iii[n]=0
sss[n]=0
rrr[n]=0
iii[n]=0
ddd[n]=0
ddd2[n]=0
icu[n]=0
hosp[n]=0
diku=1.0/210.0
maxi=0
alli=0
iku=0
hospi=0
ik=0
ho=0
maxiku=0
## SIRD malli
for n in range(0,(pitu-0)):
na=s+i+r+d
bis=beta*i*s
gi=gamma*i
dddt=delta*i
dsdt=(-1*bis)/na
didt=(bis/na)-gi-dddt
drdt=gi
s=s+dsdt
i=i+didt
r=r+drdt
d=d+dddt
sss[n]=s
iii[n]=i
rrr[n]=r
ddd[n]=d
ddd2[n]=dddt
alli=alli+i
iku=i*kiku-i*diku
hospi=i*khospi
hosp[n]=hospi
icu[n]=iku
ik=ik+iku
ho=ho+hospi
if(i<maxi):
beta=rt*gamma
if(iku>maxiku):
maxiku=iku
if(i>maxi):
maxi=i
allit.append(alli)
sairaalaant.append(int(ho))
tehollet.append(int(ik))
kuoleet.append(int(d))
icumaxit.append(int(maxiku))
imaxit.append(int(maxi))
g_ttt.append(ttt)
g_sss.append(sss)
g_iii.append(iii)
g_rrr.append(rrr)
g_ddd.append(ddd)
g_icu.append(icu)
g_hosp.append(hosp)
g_ddd2.append(ddd2)
return
- main proge
malli=0
mallimaara=10
- oletus rt
rt=3.35
for malli in range(0,(mallimaara+1)):
#if (malli==0):
## kevään 2020 aalto
pitu=180
na=1200
i=1
s=na-i
r=0
d=0
#r0=3.35
r0=2.5+0.1*malli
rt=r0
kontakt=0.5
gamma=0.1
beta=r0*gamma
delta=0.047 ## kuolleisuus
khospi=0.13 ## sairaalaan kerroin
kiku=0.035 ## teholle kerroin
sird_malli_koe_2(pitu,na,i,s,r,d,r0,rt, kontakt,gamma,beta,delta,khospi,kiku)
print ("-------------------------")
print ("Malli ", malli)
print ("R0 ",r0, "Rt ",rt )
print ("Infektiokatto ",na)
alli=allit[malli]
ho=sairaalaant[malli]
ik=tehollet[malli]
d=kuoleet[malli]
maxteholla=int(icumaxit[malli])
maxinfektiot=int(imaxit[malli])
print ("Kaikki ",int(alli))
print ("Sairaalaan ", int(ho))
print ("Teholle ", int(ik))
print ("Kuolee ",int(d))
#laapeli0="Oletukset: Nousuaika "+str(a_huippuaika)+" päivää. Alussa R0="+str(a_ro)+ " Huipun jälkeen Rt="+str(a_laskuro)
#laapeli1="Simu"
#labelo="R0 "+str(r0)+ " Infektiokatto "+str(na)+ " : kuolee yhteensä "+str(int(d))
#labelo="R0 "+str(r0)+ " Infektiokatto "+str(na)+" Teholle maksimi "+str(int(maxteholla)) +" : teholla yhteensä "+str(int(ik))
#labelo="R0 "+str(r0)+ " Infektiokatto "+str(na)+" Päivittäiset maksimi "+str(int(maxinfektiot)) +" : tapauksia yhteensä "+str(int(alli))
labelo="R0 "+str(r0)+" : yhteensä "+str(int(alli))
ax = plt.gca()
plt.title("Koronainfektiot riippuen R0:n arvosta, simulaatio", fontsize=20)
#plt.suptitle(laapeli0, fontsize=14,y=1)
plt.xlabel("Päivä", fontsize=16)
#plt.ylabel("Päivittäin kuolleita", fontsize=16)
plt.ylabel("Päivittäiset infektiot", fontsize=16)
plt.xticks(fontsize=15 )
plt.yticks(fontsize=15 )
plt.plot(g_ttt[malli],g_iii[malli],label=labelo)
#plt.plot(g_ttt[malli],g_ddd2[malli],label=labelo)
#plt.plot(g_ttt[malli],g_icu[malli],label=labelo)
#g_sss
#g_iii
#g_rrr
#g_ddd
#g_icu
#g_hosp
#g_ddd2
plt.legend()
plt.show()
Licensing
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- You are free:
- to share – to copy, distribute and transmit the work
- to remix – to adapt the work
- Under the following conditions:
- attribution – You must give appropriate credit, provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made. You may do so in any reasonable manner, but not in any way that suggests the licensor endorses you or your use.
- share alike – If you remix, transform, or build upon the material, you must distribute your contributions under the same or compatible license as the original.
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Date/Time | Thumbnail | Dimensions | User | Comment | |
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current | 17:20, 22 August 2020 | ![]() | 964 × 482 (77 KB) | Merikanto (talk | contribs) | Muokkaus |
14:18, 20 August 2020 | ![]() | 980 × 491 (77 KB) | Merikanto (talk | contribs) | Uploaded own work with UploadWizard |
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