File:Koronaviruksen R0 Suomessa 5.svg
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Summary
edit|date=2020-07-11 |source=Own work |author=Merikanto |permission= |other versions= }}
"R" 3.7 code to produce image
EpiEstim package.
Data https://datahub.io/core/covid-19/r/countries-aggregated.csv
- COVID-19 data refch && r0 calculation
- with EpiEstim package
- data fetch from github COVID-19 data site
-
- additional script only, maybe needs adjust
-
-
- v 0001.0002
- 30.5.2021
-
- cases data smoothed with GAM
- install.packages("EpiEstim",repos ="https://ftp.acc.umu.se/mirror/CRAN/")
library(EpiEstim)
library(mgcv)
library(ggplot2)
library(svglite)
library(rvest)
library(readtext)
library(stringi)
library(stringr)
library(datamart)
library(XML)
library(jsonlite)
beginday1='01/04/2020'
- limits of input data
datelimits1=c('2020/04/01', '2021/05/28')
- dates of prediction
datelimits2=c('2020/04/01', '2021/05/28')
- 0, 1 or 2 , 0 none plot, 1 plot, 2 ggplot, -1 debug
plottaa<- 1
levylle<-1 ## 0 to display, 1 to disc
load_data_from=3
plotname<-"R0_Suomessa_5.svg" ## name of plot file
polku<-"../" ## path of plot file
today=Sys.Date()
- jos ylläoleva ei toimi, niin tää
- if above not func, this
today=Sys.Date()-1
- print(today)
today1=format(today, "%d/%m/%Y")
today2=format(today, "%Y/%m/%d")
- print(today1)
- print(today2)
- stop(-1)
datelimits1=c(beginday1, today1)
paivat1=seq(as.Date("2020/4/1"), as.Date(today2), "days")
load_data_from_finnish_wiki<-function()
{
url1="https://fi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suomen_koronaviruspandemian_aikajana"
destfile1="./ward0.txt"
download.file(url1, destfile1)
texti000<-readtext(destfile1)
texti0<-texti000$text
etsittava1="1. huhtikuuta 2020 alkaen"
len1=nchar(texti0)
k1=regexpr(pattern=etsittava1, texti0)
k1b=len1-k1
texti1=strtail(texti0,k1b)
sink("out1.txt")
print (texti1)
sink()
etsittava2=""
k2=regexpr(pattern=etsittava2, texti1)
texti2=strhead(texti1,k2)
sample1<-minimal_html(texti2)
tabu1 <- html_table(sample1, fill=TRUE)1
colnames(tabu1) <- c("V1","V2", "V3","V4", "V5","V6", "V7","V8" )
- print(tabu1)
sairaalassa00<-tabu1$V4
sairaalassa=as.integer(sairaalassa00)
teholla00<-tabu1$V5
teholla=as.integer(teholla00)
uusiatapauksia00<-tabu1$V3
uusiatapauksia0<-gsub(" ", "", uusiatapauksia00)
uusia_tapauksia=as.integer(uusiatapauksia0)
uusiakuolleita00<-tabu1$V7
uusiakuolleita1=as.integer(uusiakuolleita00)
uusiakuolleita2<-uusiakuolleita1
uusiakuolleita2[uusiakuolleita2<0]<-0
uusia_kuolleita<-uusiakuolleita2
toipuneita00<-tabu1$V8
toipuneita01<-gsub(" ", "", toipuneita00)
toipuneita0<-gsub("[^0-9.-]", "", toipuneita01)
toipuneita=as.integer(toipuneita0)
tapauksia00<-tabu1$V2
tapauksia01<-gsub(" ", "", tapauksia00)
tapauksia0<-gsub("[^0-9.-]", "", tapauksia01)
tapauksia=as.integer(tapauksia0)
kuolleita00<-tabu1$V6
kuolleita=as.integer(kuolleita00)
aktiivisia_tapauksia=tapauksia-kuolleita-toipuneita
- print (paivat1)
- print (teholla)
- print (sairaalassa)
- print (tapauksia)
- print (kuolleita)
- print (toipuneita)
- print (uusia_tapauksia)
- print (uusia_kuolleita)
- plot(paivat1,aktiivisia_tapauksia)
- xy<-data.frame(paivat1, sairaalassa)
xy<-data.frame(paivat1, uusia_tapauksia)
- xy<-data.frame(paivat1, tapauksia)
xyz<-data.frame(paivat1, sairaalassa, teholla)
dfout1<-data.frame(paivat1, aktiivisia_tapauksia, uusia_tapauksia, sairaalassa, teholla, uusia_kuolleita )
names(dfout1)<-c("Pvm", "Aktiivisia_tapauksia","Uusia_tapauksia", "Sairaalassa", "Teholla", "Uusia_kuolleita")
write.csv2(dfout1, "./sairaalassa.csv",row.names=FALSE )
return(xy)
}
load_data_from_aggregated<-function()
{
-
- fetch the data
dfine <- read.csv(file = 'https://datahub.io/core/covid-19/r/countries-aggregated.csv')
- head(dfine)
- class(dfine)
- tail(dfine, 5)
dfinland <- dfine[ which(dfine$Country=='Finland'), ]
- head(dfinland)
kols <- c("Date", "Confirmed","Recovered","Deaths")
tapaukset <- dfinland[kols]
- head(tapaukset)
len1=nrow(tapaukset)
- len1
len2=len1-1
len3=len2
confirmed<-tapaukset$Confirmed
deaths<-tapaukset$Deaths
dailycases <- vector()
dailycases <- c(dailycases, 0:(len2))
dailydeaths <- vector()
dailydeaths <- c(dailydeaths, 0:(len2))
m=0
dailycases[1]<-tapaukset$Confirmed[1]
- dailydeaths[1]<-tapaukset$Deaths[1]
dailydeaths[1]<-0
- confirmed
- deaths
m=1
for(n in 2:(len3+1)) {
a<-confirmed[n]
b<-confirmed[m]
#print (a)
#print (b)
cee<- (a-b)
#print(cee)
dailycases[n]=cee
m=m+1
}
mm=1
for(nn in 2:(len3+1)) {
aa<-deaths[nn]
bb<-deaths[mm]
#print ("_")
#print (aa)
#print (bb)
ceb=aa-bb
#if (ceb<0) ceb=0
#print(ceb)
dailydeaths[nn]=ceb
mm=mm+1
}
- deaths
- dailycases
- dailydeaths
dfout1<-dfinland
- print(nrow(dfinland))
- print(length(dailydeaths))
dfout1 <- cbind(dfout1, data.frame(dailycases))
dfout1 <- cbind(dfout1, data.frame(dailydeaths))
- head(dfout1)
dfout2<-within(dfout1, rm(Country))
names(dfout2) <- c('Date','Confirmed','Recovered','Deaths', 'DailyConfirmed','DailyDeaths')
- head(dfout2)
write.csv2(dfout2, "/Users/himot/akor1/finland_data1.csv");
daate1<-dfout2$Date
dailydeaths1<-dfout2$DailyDeaths
dailycases1<-dailycases
- daate1
- daate2<-gsub("2020-", "", daate1)
daate2<-daate1
leenu<-length(daate2)
- alkupvm<-50
alkupvm<-1
daate3<-daate2[alkupvm:leenu]
dailydeaths3<-dailydeaths1[alkupvm:leenu]
dailycases3<-dailycases1[alkupvm:leenu]
- daate3
- dailydeaths3
# barplot(dailydeaths3, main="Koronaviruskuolemat päivittäin vuonna 2020",
# names.arg=daate3)
dataf1 <- data.frame("Date" = daate3, "Paivitt_kuolemat"=dailydeaths3)
- str(dataf1)
dataf2 <- data.frame("Date" = daate3, "Paivitt_tapaukset"=dailycases3)
- str(dataf2)
write.csv(dataf1, "/Users/himot/akor1/dailydeaths1.csv", row.names=T)
write.csv(dataf2, "/Users/himot/akor1/dailycases1.csv", row.names=T)
indf1 <- read.csv(file = '/Users/himot/akor1/dailycases1.csv')
#head(indf1)
cases1<-indf1$Paivitt_tapaukset
dates1<-indf1$Date
len1=length(cases1)
dates2<-as.Date(dates1)
paivat<-1:len1
xy<-data.frame(daate3, dailycases3)
}
download_solanpaa_finnish_data<-function()
{
solanpaa_fi="https://covid19.solanpaa.fi/data/fin_cases.json"
cache_file="solanpaa_fi.json"
download.file(solanpaa_fi, cache_file)
j1 <- fromJSON(cache_file)
## maybe errori
dates<-as.Date(j1$date)
dailycases<-j1$new_cases
dailydeaths<-j1$new_deaths
dataf1 <- data.frame("Date" = dates, "Paivitt_kuolemat"=dailydeaths)
dataf2 <- data.frame("Date" = dates, "Paivitt_tapaukset"=dailycases)
write.csv(dataf1, "./dailydeaths1.csv", row.names=T)
write.csv(dataf2, "./dailycases1.csv", row.names=T)
xy0<-data.frame(dates, dailycases)
names(xy0)<-c("Dates", "Cases")
xy<-na.omit(xy0)
return(xy)
}
lataa_thl_tapaukset_kuolleet<-function()
{
url1<-"https://sampo.thl.fi/pivot/prod/fi/epirapo/covid19case/fact_epirapo_covid19case.json?row=measure-492118&column=dateweek20200101-508804L"
cube1 <- fromJSONstat(url1, naming = "label", use_factors = F, silent = T)
res01 <- cube11
#res00
url2<-"https://sampo.thl.fi/pivot/prod/fi/epirapo/covid19case/fact_epirapo_covid19case.json?row=measure-444833&column=dateweek20200101-508804L"
cube2 <- fromJSONstat(url2, naming = "label", use_factors = F, silent = T)
res02 <- cube21
#res02
#stop (-1)
paiva=as.Date(res01$dateweek20200101)
kuolleet=as.integer(res01$value)
tapaukset=as.integer(res02$value)
kuolin_prosentit=kuolleet/tapaukset
kuolin_prosentit=kuolin_prosentit*10000
kuolin_prosentit=as.integer(kuolin_prosentit)
kuolin_prosentit=as.double(kuolin_prosentit)
kuolin_prosentit=kuolin_prosentit/100.0
#print (paiva)
#print (kuolleet)
#stop(-1)
#print (tapaukset)
#print (kuolin_prosentit )
df1<-data.frame(paiva,tapaukset, kuolleet, kuolin_prosentit)
names(df1)<-c("Paiva", "Tapauksia", "Kuolleita", "Kuolinprosentti")
#write.csv2(df1, "./kuolleet_ikaryhmittain.csv", sep = ";" )
write.csv(df1, "./thl_tapaukset_kuolleet.csv")
xy0<-data.frame(paiva, tapaukset)
names(xy0)<-c("Dates", "Cases")
xy<-na.omit(xy0)
#return(df1)
}
-
if(load_data_from==1)
{
xy<-load_data_from_finnish_wiki()
print (xy)
}
if(load_data_from==2)
{
xy<-load_data_from_aggregated()
}
if(load_data_from==3)
{
xy<-download_solanpaa_finnish_data()
}
if(load_data_from==4)
{
xy<-lataa_thl_tapaukset_kuolleet()
}
names(xy)<-c("Dates","Cases")
select_datelimit_begin=as.Date(beginday1,format="%d/%m/%Y")
select_datelimit_end=as.Date(today1)
xy2<-xy[xy$Dates >= select_datelimit_begin,]
#print(xy2)
- stop(-1)
cases1<-xy2$Cases
dates1<-xy2$Dates
xy3<-data.frame( as.Date(dates1),as.integer(cases1) )
names(xy3)<-c("Dates", "Cases")
len1=length(cases1)
dates2<-as.Date(dates1)
paivat<-1:len1
num1<-cases1
dates1<-dates1
names1=dates1
len1=length(num1)
alku<-as.integer(len1*0+1)
loppu<-as.integer(len1)
start_lok<-as.integer(1)
end_lok<-as.integer(len1)
paivat<-as.Date(dates1[start_lok:(end_lok)])
indexes1=start_lok:end_lok
num1[is.na(num1)] <- 1
num1[(num1<0)] <- num1*-1
num1[num1==0] <- 1
num<-num1[start_lok:end_lok]
- names<-names1[start_lok:end_lok]
- names<-indexes1
dates<-paivat
- dates<-names1
I<-num1
- ceises <- setNames(dates, num)
ceises<-data.frame(dates, I)
incid<-I
- smooth data
x=indexes1
y=incid
#3. deg poly
- lo<- loess(y~x)
- 10 asteen poly ok
fit3<-gam(y~poly(x,10))
xx <- seq(1,length(incid), length=length(incid))
- fittedvalues<- fit3$fitted.values
- str(fit3)
fity1<-predict(fit3, data.frame(x=xx))
fitu1<-fity1
names(fitu1) <- NULL
fittedvalues1<-fitu1
fittedvalues1
str(fity1)
I<-NULL
fittedvalues1<-as.integer(fittedvalues1)
fittedvalues1[fittedvalues1<1] <- 1
I<-fittedvalues1
ceises<-data.frame(dates, I)
incid<-I
- fity2<-predict(lo)
- names(ceises)<-c("dates" "I")
- dates, I
- parametric si
config<-make_config( list(mean_si = 2.6,std_si = 1.5) )
- estimete R
res<-estimate_R(incid,method="parametric_si", config = config)
plot(res)
- plot(res, "R")
- uncertain si
- onfig <- make_config(list(mean_si = 2.6, std_mean_si = 1,
- min_mean_si = 1, max_mean_si = 4.2,
- std_si = 1.5, std_std_si = 0.5,
- min_std_si = 0.5, max_std_si = 2.5))
- es2 <- estimate_R(incid,method = "uncertain_si",config = config)
- lot(res2)
resr<-res$R
str(resr)
meanr<-resr$Mean
medianr<-resr$Median
quantile95<-resr$Quantile.0.95
quantile05<-resr$Quantile.0.05
quantile75<-resr$Quantile.0.75
quantile25<-resr$Quantile.0.25
meanr
daydexes<-resr$t_start
daydexes
dayss<-paivat[daydexes]
if(plottaa==1)
{
if(levylle==1)
{
plotname1<-paste0(polku, plotname)
svg(filename=plotname1, width=16, height=5, pointsize=12)
}
- plot(dayss, meanr, main="Koonaviruksen R0 Suomessa")
time=as.POSIXct(dayss)
y=meanr
plot(time, y, xaxt="n", type="lines", col="black", lwd=3,
main="Arvioitu koronaviruksen R0 Suomessa", xlab="Kuukausi 2020-2021 ...", ylab="Tartutusluku R0",
ylim=c(0.6,1.8), cex.lab=1.6, cex.axis=1.6, cex.main=1.5, cex.sub=1.5)
axis.POSIXct(side=1,at=cut(time, breaks="month"),format="%b", cex.lab=1.6, cex.axis=1.6, cex.main=1.5, cex.sub=1.5)
abline(h=1.0, col="#007f00", lty=2, lwd=3)
lines(time,meanr, col="black", lwd=4)
lines(time,medianr, col="#004f00", lwd=2)
lines(time,quantile95, col="red", lty=2)
lines(time,quantile05, col="blue", lty=2)
lines(time,quantile75, col="red", lty=1)
lines(time,quantile25, col="blue", lty=1)
if(levylle==1)
{
dev.off()
}
}
if(plottaa==-1)
{
plot(x,y,pch=19)
print(length(xx))
print(length(y))
print (length(paivat))
plot(paivat,y,pch=4,ylim=c(0,1000))
lines(paivat,fity1 , col="blue", lwd=3, lty=2)
#lines(paivat,fity2 , col="red", lwd=3)
}
Licensing
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- Under the following conditions:
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Date/Time | Thumbnail | Dimensions | User | Comment | |
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current | 08:22, 9 August 2021 | 1,440 × 450 (236 KB) | Merikanto (talk | contribs) | update | |
13:08, 30 May 2021 | 1,440 × 450 (212 KB) | Merikanto (talk | contribs) | Update | ||
09:51, 26 April 2021 | 1,440 × 450 (202 KB) | Merikanto (talk | contribs) | Update | ||
12:36, 23 March 2021 | 1,440 × 540 (108 KB) | Merikanto (talk | contribs) | Update | ||
12:31, 23 March 2021 | 1,440 × 540 (106 KB) | Merikanto (talk | contribs) | update | ||
14:47, 11 January 2021 | 1,440 × 540 (94 KB) | Merikanto (talk | contribs) | Update | ||
13:42, 3 December 2020 | 1,440 × 540 (100 KB) | Merikanto (talk | contribs) | Update | ||
11:57, 4 November 2020 | 1,440 × 540 (95 KB) | Merikanto (talk | contribs) | Update | ||
12:21, 18 September 2020 | 1,440 × 540 (86 KB) | Merikanto (talk | contribs) | Update | ||
13:53, 2 September 2020 | 1,440 × 540 (84 KB) | Merikanto (talk | contribs) | Update |
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