File:Koronavirus sird simulaatio 1.svg
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editDescriptionKoronavirus sird simulaatio 1.svg |
Suomi: Muutaman kuvitteellisen koronavirusaallon kuolleisuuden SIRD-mallin simulaatio
English: Simulation of few fictional COVID-19 wave. Basic assumption of models are R0 and
daily limit of infections |
Date | |
Source | Own work |
Author | Merikanto |
Source code of SIRD simulation of COVID-10 epidemy death rate.
- Covid-19 etc. SIRD model Python script
- attempt to simulate Covid-19 epidemy
- can simulate multiple rounds
- main params: R0,infection ceiling
-
- Note: this program is for educational purposes only
- not actual simulation of epidemies
- do not rake account changes in R0 value
- due to lockdowns and other measures
import math as math
import numpy as np
import scipy as sp
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import pandas as pd
import matplotlib.dates as mdates
from matplotlib.ticker import NullFormatter
from matplotlib.dates import MonthLocator, DateFormatter
allit=[]
tehollet=[]
sairaalaant=[]
kuoleet=[]
g_ttt=[]
g_sss=[]
g_iii=[]
g_rrr=[]
g_ddd=[]
g_icu=[]
g_hosp=[]
g_ddd2=[]
- ttt=np.linspace(0,pitu,pitu)
- sss=np.linspace(0,pitu,pitu)
- iii=np.linspace(0,pitu,pitu)
- rrr=np.linspace(0,pitu,pitu)
- ddd=np.linspace(0,pitu,pitu)
- icu=np.linspace(0,pitu,pitu)
- hosp=np.linspace(0,pitu,pitu)
- ddd2=np.linspace(0,pitu,pitu)
def sird_malli_koe_1(pitu,na,i,s,r,d,r0,kontakt,gamma,beta,delta,khospi,kiku):
global allit
global tehollet
global sairaalaant
global kuoleet
ttt=np.linspace(0,pitu,pitu)
sss=np.linspace(0,pitu,pitu)
iii=np.linspace(0,pitu,pitu)
rrr=np.linspace(0,pitu,pitu)
ddd=np.linspace(0,pitu,pitu)
icu=np.linspace(0,pitu,pitu)
hosp=np.linspace(0,pitu,pitu)
ddd2=np.linspace(0,pitu,pitu)
for n in range(0,(pitu)):
iii[n]=0
sss[n]=0
rrr[n]=0
iii[n]=0
ddd[n]=0
ddd2[n]=0
icu[n]=0
hosp[n]=0
alli=0
iku=0
hospi=0
ik=0
ho=0
## SIRD malli
for n in range(0,(pitu-0)):
na=s+i+r+d
bis=beta*i*s
gi=gamma*i
dddt=delta*i
dsdt=(-1*bis)/na
didt=(bis/na)-gi-dddt
drdt=gi
s=s+dsdt
i=i+didt
r=r+drdt
d=d+dddt
sss[n]=s
iii[n]=i
rrr[n]=r
ddd[n]=d
ddd2[n]=dddt
alli=alli+i
iku=i*kiku
hospi=i*khospi
hosp[n]=hospi
icu[n]=iku
ik=ik+iku
ho=ho+hospi
allit.append(alli)
sairaalaant.append(int(ho))
tehollet.append(int(ik))
kuoleet.append(int(d))
g_ttt.append(ttt)
g_sss.append(sss)
g_iii.append(iii)
g_rrr.append(rrr)
g_ddd.append(ddd)
g_icu.append(icu)
g_hosp.append(hosp)
g_ddd2.append(ddd2)
return
- main proge
malli=0
for malli in range(0,7):
if (malli==0):
## kevään 2020 aalto
pitu=180
na=1200
i=1
s=na-i
r=0
d=0
r0=3.35
kontakt=0.5
gamma=0.1
beta=r0*gamma
delta=0.047 ## kuolleisuus
khospi=0.13 ## sairaalaan kerroin
kiku=0.035 ## teholle kerroin
if (malli==1):
## 3x
pitu=180
na=1200*3
i=1
s=na-i
r=0
d=0
r0=3.35
kontakt=0.5
gamma=0.1
beta=r0*gamma
delta=0.047 ## kuolleisuus
khospi=0.13 ## sairaalaan kerroin
kiku=0.035 ## teholle kerroin
if (malli==2):
pitu=180
na=1200*6
i=1
s=na-i
r=0
d=0
r0=3.35
kontakt=0.5
gamma=0.1
beta=r0*gamma
delta=0.047 ## kuolleisuus
khospi=0.13 ## sairaalaan kerroin
kiku=0.035 ## teholle kerroin
if (malli==3):
pitu=180
na=1200*10
i=1
s=na-i
r=0
d=0
r0=3.35
kontakt=0.5
gamma=0.1
beta=r0*gamma
delta=0.047 ## kuolleisuus
khospi=0.13 ## sairaalaan kerroin
kiku=0.035 ## teholle kerroin
if (malli==4):
pitu=180
na=1200*20
i=1
s=na-i
r=0
d=0
r0=3.35
kontakt=0.5
gamma=0.1
beta=r0*gamma
delta=0.047 ## kuolleisuus
khospi=0.13 ## sairaalaan kerroin
kiku=0.035 ## teholle kerroin
if (malli==5):
pitu=180
na=1200*40
i=1
s=na-i
r=0
d=0
r0=3.35
kontakt=0.5
gamma=0.1
beta=r0*gamma
delta=0.047 ## kuolleisuus
khospi=0.13 ## sairaalaan kerroin
kiku=0.035 ## teholle kerroin
if (malli==6):
pitu=180
na=1200*100
i=1
s=na-i
r=0
d=0
r0=3.35
kontakt=0.5
gamma=0.1
beta=r0*gamma
delta=0.047 ## kuolleisuus
khospi=0.13 ## sairaalaan kerroin
kiku=0.035 ## teholle kerroin
sird_malli_koe_1(pitu,na,i,s,r,d,r0,kontakt,gamma,beta,delta,khospi,kiku)
print ("-------------------------")
print ("Malli ", malli)
print ("R0 ",r0)
print ("Infektiokatto ",na)
modelo=malli
alli=allit[modelo]
ho=sairaalaant[modelo]
ik=tehollet[modelo]
d=kuoleet[modelo]
print ("Kaikki ",int(alli))
print ("Sairaalaan ", int(ho))
print ("Teholle ", int(ik))
print ("Kuolee ",int(d))
#laapeli0="Oletukset: Nousuaika "+str(a_huippuaika)+" päivää. Alussa R0="+str(a_ro)+ " Huipun jälkeen Rt="+str(a_laskuro)
#laapeli1="Simu"
labelo="R0 "+str(r0)+ " Infektiokatto "+str(na)+ " : kuolee yhteensä "+str(int(d))
ax = plt.gca()
plt.title("Simuloitu koronaviruksen kuolleisuus", fontsize=20)
#plt.suptitle(laapeli0, fontsize=14,y=1)
plt.xlabel("Päivä", fontsize=16)
plt.ylabel("Päivittäin kuolleita", fontsize=16)
plt.xticks(fontsize=15 )
plt.yticks(fontsize=15 )
plt.plot(g_ttt[modelo],g_ddd2[modelo],label=labelo)
#g_sss
#g_iii
#g_rrr
#g_ddd
#g_icu
#g_hosp
#g_ddd2
#plt.plot(ttt,iii)
#plt.plot(ttt,icu)
#plt.plot(ttt,hosp)
##plt.plot(ttt,ddd)
#plt.plot(ttt,ddd2)
plt.legend()
plt.show()
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- You are free:
- to share – to copy, distribute and transmit the work
- to remix – to adapt the work
- Under the following conditions:
- attribution – You must give appropriate credit, provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made. You may do so in any reasonable manner, but not in any way that suggests the licensor endorses you or your use.
- share alike – If you remix, transform, or build upon the material, you must distribute your contributions under the same or compatible license as the original.
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Date/Time | Thumbnail | Dimensions | User | Comment | |
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current | 09:20, 20 August 2020 | ![]() | 948 × 438 (65 KB) | Merikanto (talk | contribs) | Update obf simulation parameters |
08:00, 20 August 2020 | ![]() | 683 × 526 (54 KB) | Merikanto (talk | contribs) | Uploaded own work with UploadWizard |
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