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File:Suomen kevaan 2020 korona-aallon sir malli 1.svg

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Description
Suomi: Suomen kevaan 2020 korona-aallon SIR-malli.
Date
Source Own work
Author Merikanto

This code is based SIR code from https://scipython.com/book/chapter-8-scipy/additional-examples/the-sir-epidemic-model/

    1. sir model covid epidemy
    2. attmpt to model first vawe with
    3. SIR model
    4. first vawe in finland
    5. NORE not fully accurate
    6. educational purposes only
    7. code is based from https://scipython.com/book/chapter-8-scipy/additional-examples/the-sir-epidemic-model/

import numpy as np from scipy.integrate import odeint import matplotlib.pyplot as plt

N = 6000 I0= 1 R0 = 0 S0 = N - I0 - R0 beta =1/4 ## infection rate gamma = 1.0/30 ## recovery rate delta=0.045 ##death

t = np.linspace(0, 160, 160)

def deriv(y, t, N, beta, gamma): 

   S, I, R = y
   dSdt = -beta * S * I / N
   dIdt = beta * S * I / N - gamma * I
   dRdt = gamma * I
   return dSdt, dIdt, dRdt

y0 = S0, I0, R0

ret = odeint(deriv, y0, t, args=(N, beta, gamma)) S, I, R = ret.T

D=R*delta R2=R*(1.0-delta)

fig = plt.figure(facecolor='w') ax = fig.add_subplot(111, axisbelow=True)

ax.plot(t, S, 'b', alpha=0.5, lw=2, label='Ei ollut tautia') ax.plot(t, I, 'r', alpha=0.5, lw=2, label='Sairaat') ax.plot(t, R2, 'g', alpha=0.5, lw=2, label='Parantuneet') ax.plot(t, D, '#000000', alpha=0.5, lw=2, label='Kuolleet')

plt.title("Suomen kevään 2020 korona-aallon SIR-malli") ax.set_xlabel('Päivä') ax.set_ylabel('Luku')

ax.yaxis.set_tick_params(length=0) ax.xaxis.set_tick_params(length=0)

legend = ax.legend() legend.get_frame().set_alpha(0.5) for spine in ('top', 'right', 'bottom', 'left'): 

   ax.spines[spine].set_visible(False)

plt.show()

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I, the copyright holder of this work, hereby publish it under the following license:
w:en:Creative Commons
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This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0 International license.
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Under the following conditions:
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  • share alike – If you remix, transform, or build upon the material, you must distribute your contributions under the same or compatible license as the original.

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current13:45, 21 August 2020Thumbnail for version as of 13:45, 21 August 2020752 × 350 (37 KB)Merikanto (talk | contribs)Uploaded own work with UploadWizard

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