File:Suomen kevaan 2020 koronavirusaallon sairaana olevien seird 1.svg
Original file (SVG file, nominally 900 × 450 pixels, file size: 34 KB)
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Summary
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| Description |
Suomi: Koronavirusta sairastaneiden luku keväällä 2020 oletuksiin pohjautuvan SEIRD-mallin mukaan. |
| Date | |
| Source | Own work |
| Author | Merikanto |
This Python SEIRD model of finnish first vawe of COVID-19 is baseid SEIR model and lots of assumptions.
- seird model test project
-
- Note: this model is aducational model only, not actual infection
- model of COVID-19
import math as math
import numpy as np
import scipy as sp
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import pandas as pd
import matplotlib.dates as mdates
from matplotlib.ticker import NullFormatter
from matplotlib.dates import MonthLocator, DateFormatter
aikaraja=120
times1 = pd.date_range('2020-02-26', periods=aikaraja, freq='D')
nn=5000 ## infektoituva väestön osa, tässä osin alennettu
malli=1
- malli0
if(malli==0):
## infektioita 7000
## nn 7000
betai=0.8
betad=0.2
Te=5
Ti=28
Td=21
f=0.006 ## kuolleisuus
- malli1
if(malli==1):
betai=0.75
betad=0.17
Te=5
Ti=35
Td=21
f=0.006 ## kuolleisuus
E=1.0
I=1.0
S=(nn-I)
R=0.0
D=0.0
taimitabu=np.linspace(0,aikaraja,aikaraja)
infetabu=np.linspace(0,aikaraja,aikaraja)
kuolitabu=np.linspace(0,aikaraja,aikaraja)
for taimi in range(0,aikaraja):
infetabu[taimi]=0
kuolitabu[taimi]=0
for taimi in range(0,aikaraja):
betaisi=betai*S*I
betadsd=betad*S*D
dSdt=(-1*betai*S*I)/nn-(betad*S*D)/nn
dEdt=(betai*S*I)/nn+(betad*S*D)/nn-E/Te
dIdt=E/Te-I/Ti
dRdt=((1.0-f)*I)/Ti
dDdt=((f*I)/Ti)-D/Td
S=S+dSdt
E=E+dEdt
I=I+dIdt
R=R+dRdt
D=D+dDdt
infetabu[taimi]=I
kuolitabu[taimi]=D
plt.figure(figsize=(10, 5), dpi=100)
ax = plt.gca()
plt.title("Kevään 2020 korona-aallon SEIRD-malli", fontsize=20)
- plt.suptitle(laapeli0, fontsize=14,y=1)
plt.xlabel("Päivä", fontsize=16)
plt.ylabel("Lukumäärä", fontsize=16)
plt.xticks(fontsize=15 )
plt.yticks(fontsize=15 )
ax.xaxis.set_major_formatter(mdates.DateFormatter('%d.%m.'))
- plt.plot(x,iii, color="red", label="I" )
- plt.plot(taimitabu,kuolitabu, color="black", label="Päivittäiset kuolemat" )
- plt.plot(times1,kuolitabu, color="black", label="Päivittäiset kuolemat" )
plt.plot(times1,infetabu, color="red", label="Sairaana" )
- plt.plot(taimitabu,infetabu)
plt.legend(fontsize=16)
plt.savefig('suomen_kevaan_2020_koronavirusaallon_seird_1.svg',dpi=199)
plt.show()
Licensing
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- You are free:
- to share – to copy, distribute and transmit the work
- to remix – to adapt the work
- Under the following conditions:
- attribution – You must give appropriate credit, provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made. You may do so in any reasonable manner, but not in any way that suggests the licensor endorses you or your use.
- share alike – If you remix, transform, or build upon the material, you must distribute your contributions under the same or compatible license as the original.
File history
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| Date/Time | Thumbnail | Dimensions | User | Comment | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | 09:57, 23 August 2020 | | 900 × 450 (34 KB) | Merikanto (talk | contribs) | Correction of layout |
| 08:20, 23 August 2020 |  | 576 × 432 (35 KB) | Merikanto (talk | contribs) | Uploaded own work with UploadWizard |
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