English: On August 12, 2021, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on board NASA’s Aqua satellite acquired a true-color image of Tropical Depression Fred centered just north of the island of Hispaniola. At the time the image was captured, the disorganized system was facing substantial wind shear, but continued to drop rain on and bring strong winds to both Haiti and the Dominican Republic.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued its first advisory on this system on August 9, when they reported the potential formation of Tropical Cyclone Six about 165 miles (260 km) east south-east of Dominica. At that time the potential cyclone carried maximum sustained winds of 35 mph (55 km/h) but had sparked multiple tropical storm warnings across the region.

By August 11, when Fred made landfall in the Dominican Republic as a tropical storm, it carried enough power to topple trees, damage 80 houses, displace about 385 people, and cause power outages to about 400,000 customers in that country, according to media reports. Haiti, to the west of the Dominican Republic, absorbed substantial rain, bringing concerns of flooding. At landfall, according to advisories from the NHC, Fred was carrying maximum sustained winds of 45 mph (75 km/h), but interaction with land quickly weakened the system. On the afternoon of August 13, Tropical Depression Fred made landfall over central Cuba, bringing heavy rains to that country.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT (0300 UTC) on August 13, the NHC advised that the center of Tropical Depression Fred was located at 22.7N 80.6W, which is about 45 mi (75 km) southeast of Varadero, Cuba and about 150 I (245 km) south-southeast of Key West, Florida. It was carrying maximum sustained winds of 35 mph (55 km/h) and was moving west at 12 mph (19 km/h). Interaction with strong shear has diminished the features of the storm, and the NHC states that it is difficult to determine in infrared satellite imagery and recent surface observations if a closed circulation still exists. However, it is still classified as a tropical depression for now. Little change in strength is expected immediately, but slow strengthening is likely to return Fred to tropical storm status by late on August 14.

The NHC forecasts that the storm will begin to move towards the west-northwest, then turn to the northwest by Saturday. This track will continue and bring Fred near or west of the lower Florida Keys on August 14 and across the eastern Gulf of Mexico from August 14-15. The system is expected to be a rain-make across a wide area, including western Florida, even though the current forecast track expects Fred’s center to stay offshore until it reaches the northern Gulf Coast. Current tracks bring Fred across the western Florida panhandle near Alabama late on August 15, then likely tracking across Alabama, Mississippi, and Tennessee.