File:US polls 2016.svg
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DescriptionUS polls 2016.svg |
English: A combination of nationwide opinion polls during the 2016 U.S. presidential election. The trend lines are Local Regressions with α = 0.8 and 95% confidence interval ribbons. The point sizes and trend lines are weighted according to the margin of error of each poll. |
Date | |
Source | Own work |
Author | Abjiklam |
Licensing edit
I, the copyright holder of this work, hereby publish it under the following license:
This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0 International license.
- You are free:
- to share – to copy, distribute and transmit the work
- to remix – to adapt the work
- Under the following conditions:
- attribution – You must give appropriate credit, provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made. You may do so in any reasonable manner, but not in any way that suggests the licensor endorses you or your use.
- share alike – If you remix, transform, or build upon the material, you must distribute your contributions under the same or compatible license as the original.
Code edit
The graph is generated by the following R script, largely inspired by this file.
library(RCurl)
library(reshape)
library(htmltab)
library(ggplot2)
library(stringr)
library(scales)
#get the table from the url
theurl <- getURL("https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2016", ssl.verifyPeer=FALSE)
table <- htmltab(theurl, which=3)
df = table[, c(2, 8, 3:6)]
names(df) <- c("Date", "Size", "DC", "DP", "RC", "RP")
df = df[which(df$RC=="Donald Trump"), ]
df[which(df$DC=="Bernie Sanders"), ]$DC = "Sanders"
df[which(df$DC=="Hillary Clinton"), ]$DC = "Clinton"
df[which(df$RC=="Donald Trump"), ]$RC = "Trump"
df[which(df$DC=="Sanders" & df$RC=="Trump"), ]$RC = "Trump2"
df$Contest = paste(substr(df$DC, 1, 1), substr(df$RC, 1, 1))
dem.df = df[, c(1:4, 7)]
rep.df = df[, c(1:2, 5:7)]
names(dem.df)[3:4] <- c("Candidate", "Support")
names(rep.df) <- names(dem.df)
df = rbind(dem.df, rep.df)
df$Support = as.numeric(sub("%", "", df$Support))/100
df$Date = sub("[0-9]+\\s*–\\s*([0-9]+)", "\\1", df$Date)
df$Date = sub(".*–", "", df$Date)
df$Date = sub("[0-9]+\\s*-\\s*([0-9]+)", "\\1", df$Date)
df$Date = sub(".*-", "", df$Date)
df$Date = trimws(df$Date)
df$Date = as.Date(df$Date, format="%B %d, %Y")
df$Size = as.numeric(sub(",", "", df$Size))
df$Error = 1/sqrt(df$Size)
cols = c("#6666FF", "#333366", "#FF3333", "#993333")
labs = c("Clinton vs. Trump", "Sanders vs. Trump", "Trump vs. Clinton", "Trump vs. Sanders")
results = df
#breaks() returns n evenly spaced numbers between x and y
#whose squares are divisible by p
#the function is used for the legend
breaks <- function(x, y, n, p) {
x = sqrt(ceiling(as.integer(x^2) / p) * p)
y = sqrt(floor(as.integer(y^2) / p) * p)
s = seq(x, y, length.out=n)
for (i in 2:(n-1)) {
s[i] = sqrt(round(s[i]^2 / p) * p)
}
return(unique(s))
}
d = ggplot(results, aes(x=Date, y=Support,
colour=Candidate, linetype=Candidate, shape=Candidate,
size=1/Error, weight=1/Error)) +
labs(title="Nationwide opinion polling for the 2016 U.S. presidential election") +
geom_point(alpha=0.7) +
geom_smooth(span=0.8, show.legend=F, alpha=0.2) +
scale_colour_manual(name="Candidate", values=cols, labels=labs) +
scale_shape_manual(name="Candidate", values=c(16, 15, 16, 15), labels=labs) +
scale_linetype_manual(name="Candidate", values=c(1, 5, 1, 5), labels=labs) +
scale_size_area(max_size=3,
breaks=function(x) breaks(x[1], x[2], 5, 100), #5 numbers divisible by 100
labels=function(x) comma_format()(x^2),
name="Sample Size") +
scale_y_continuous(breaks=seq(0,1,0.05), minor_breaks=seq(0,1,0.01), labels=percent,
limits=c(0.34, 0.6)) +
scale_x_date(labels=date_format("%b %d"),
breaks=sort(c(seq(as.Date("2016/1/1"), as.Date("2016/10/1"), "month"),
as.Date("2016/11/8")))) +
theme(panel.grid.minor=element_line(size=0.2),
panel.grid.major=element_line(size=0.6))
#save plot as "us2016.svg"
svg(filename="us2016.svg",
width=9,
height=5,
pointsize=12,
bg="transparent")
d
dev.off()
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Date/Time | Thumbnail | Dimensions | User | Comment | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
current | 14:06, 8 June 2016 | 810 × 450 (180 KB) | Χ (talk | contribs) | update | |
01:38, 7 June 2016 | 810 × 360 (178 KB) | Χ (talk | contribs) | update | ||
17:33, 2 June 2016 | 810 × 360 (177 KB) | Χ (talk | contribs) | update | ||
00:49, 2 June 2016 | 810 × 360 (175 KB) | Χ (talk | contribs) | User created page with UploadWizard |
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Height | 360pt |