File:Vermeintlicher Stillstand der globalen Erwärmung.gif

Vermeintlicher_Stillstand_der_globalen_Erwärmung.gif(509 × 370 pixels, file size: 541 KB, MIME type: image/gif, looped, 42 frames, 18 s)

Captions

Captions

Apparent stagnation of global warming

Summary edit

Description
Deutsch: Durch Selektieren bzw. Rosinenpicken von Daten scheint der Trend der globalen Erwärmung fälschlicherweise anzuhalten, wie im Zeitraum von 1998 bis 2012, was in Wirklichkeit eine zufällige entgegengesetzte Schwankung ist.
English: By selecting or cherry-picking data, the trend of global warming appears to mistakenly stop, as in the period from 1998 to 2012, which is actually a random contrary fluctuation.
Date
Source Own work
Author Physikinger
Other versions english version: File:Global_warming_hiatus.gif
GIF development
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Created with Matplotlib-logo 
This plot was created with Matplotlib.
Source code
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Python code

# This source code is public domain

import numpy
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import imageio

year_T = {
    # https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt
    # GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius   base period: 1951-1980
    # sources:  GHCN-v4 1880-07/2021 + SST: ERSST v5 1880-07/2021
    # using elimination of outliers and homogeneity adjustment
    # Divide by 100 to get changes in degrees Celsius (deg-C).
    # Year  J-D (annual mean Temperature Jan to Dec)
    1880: -16, 1881:  -8, 1882: -11, 1883: -17, 1884: -28,
    1885: -33, 1886: -31, 1887: -36, 1888: -17, 1889: -10,
    1890: -35, 1891: -22, 1892: -27, 1893: -31, 1894: -30,
    1895: -22, 1896: -11, 1897: -11, 1898: -27, 1899: -17,
    1900:  -8, 1901: -15, 1902: -28, 1903: -37, 1904: -47,
    1905: -26, 1906: -22, 1907: -38, 1908: -43, 1909: -48,
    1910: -43, 1911: -44, 1912: -36, 1913: -34, 1914: -15,
    1915: -14, 1916: -36, 1917: -46, 1918: -30, 1919: -28,
    1920: -27, 1921: -19, 1922: -29, 1923: -27, 1924: -27,
    1925: -22, 1926: -11, 1927: -22, 1928: -20, 1929: -36,
    1930: -16, 1931:  -9, 1932: -16, 1933: -29, 1934: -13,
    1935: -20, 1936: -15, 1937:  -3, 1938:   0, 1939:  -2,
    1940:  13, 1941:  19, 1942:   7, 1943:   9, 1944:  20,
    1945:   9, 1946:  -7, 1947:  -3, 1948: -11, 1949: -11,
    1950: -17, 1951:  -7, 1952:   1, 1953:   8, 1954: -13,
    1955: -14, 1956: -19, 1957:   5, 1958:   6, 1959:   3,
    1960:  -3, 1961:   6, 1962:   3, 1963:   5, 1964: -20,
    1965: -11, 1966:  -6, 1967:  -2, 1968:  -8, 1969:   5,
    1970:   3, 1971:  -8, 1972:   1, 1973:  16, 1974:  -7,
    1975:  -1, 1976: -10, 1977:  18, 1978:   7, 1979:  16,
    1980:  26, 1981:  32, 1982:  14, 1983:  31, 1984:  16,
    1985:  12, 1986:  18, 1987:  32, 1988:  39, 1989:  27,
    1990:  45, 1991:  40, 1992:  22, 1993:  23, 1994:  31,
    1995:  45, 1996:  33, 1997:  46, 1998:  61, 1999:  38,
    2000:  39, 2001:  53, 2002:  63, 2003:  62, 2004:  53,
    2005:  67, 2006:  63, 2007:  66, 2008:  54, 2009:  65,
    2010:  72, 2011:  61, 2012:  65, 2013:  67, 2014:  74,
    2015:  90, 2016: 101, 2017:  92, 2018:  85, 2019:  97,
    2020: 102, 2021:  85, 2022:  89, 2023: 117   
    }

x, y = (numpy.array(list(x()), dtype='d') for x in (year_T.keys, year_T.values))
y = y / 100

xMinFocus, xMaxFocus = 1998, 2012
i0 = x.tolist().index(xMinFocus)
i1 = x.tolist().index(xMaxFocus) + 1

nPoly = 4
phi = numpy.array([x**i for i in range(nPoly)])
A = phi @ phi.T
b = phi @ y
c = numpy.linalg.solve(A, b)
yPoly = c @ phi

phiHist = phi[:,:i1]
A = phiHist @ phiHist.T
b = phiHist @ y[:i1]
c = numpy.linalg.solve(A, b)
yPolyHist = c @ phi

nPoly = 3
phiF = phi[:nPoly,i0:i1]
A = phiF @ phiF.T
b = phiF @ y[i0:i1]
c = numpy.linalg.solve(A, b)
yPolyFocus = c @ phi[:nPoly]
yMinTotal, yMaxTotal = numpy.min(y) - 0.02, numpy.max(y) + 0.02
xMinTotal, xMaxTotal = numpy.min(x), numpy.max(x)
yMinFocus, yMaxFocus = numpy.min(y[i0:i1]) - 0.02, numpy.max(y[i0:i1]) + 0.02
plt.xlim(xMinFocus-0.1, xMaxFocus+0.5)

# Frame-Parameter:
#   t: Frame-Dauer
#   trans1: Übergang 0 bis 1 vom Zoom bis zum vollen Zeitraum
#   trans2: Übergang 0 bis 1 vom reduzierten bis zum vollen Datensatz
#   showTrend: Trend (0: None, 1: Ausschnitt, 2: gesamte Historie, 3: gesamter Zeitraum)

parameters = [ # (t, trans1, trans2, showTrend)
    (1, 0.0, 0.0, 0),
    (4, 0.0, 0.0, 1),
    *[(0.1, t**2, 0.0, 1) for t in numpy.linspace(0,1,25)],
    (1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1),
    (0.5, 1.0, 0.0, 0),
    (1, 1.0, 0.0, 2),
    *[(0.1, 1.0, t,2) for t in numpy.linspace(0,1,10)],
    (0.5, 1.0, 1.0, 2),
    (6, 1.0, 1.0, 3),
    ]

images = []
duration = []
for t, trans1, trans2, showTrend in parameters:
    duration.append(t)
    zoom = 4*(1-trans1) + 1*trans1
    fig = plt.figure(figsize=(5.1,3.7), dpi=100)
    plt.rc('axes', titlesize=14, labelsize=12)
    plt.rc('xtick', labelsize=11)
    plt.rc('ytick', labelsize=11)
    plt.rc('legend', fontsize=16)
    if showTrend == 1: plt.plot(x[i0-15:], yPolyFocus[i0-15:], 'r--', label='Trend')
    if showTrend == 2: plt.plot(x, yPolyHist, 'b--', label='Trend')
    if showTrend == 3: plt.plot(x, yPoly, 'b--', label='Trend')
    iMax = int(i1 + trans2*(len(x)-i1))
    plt.plot(x[:iMax], y[:iMax], 'C0.-', alpha=0.8, linewidth=0.8*zoom, markersize=6*zoom)
    plt.plot(x[i0:i1], y[i0:i1], 'C3.-', linewidth=0.805*zoom, markersize=6.05*zoom)
    plt.grid(True, alpha=0.7)
    yMax = yMaxFocus + trans1*(yMaxTotal-yMaxFocus)
    xMax = xMaxFocus + trans1*(xMaxTotal-xMaxFocus)
    xMin = xMinFocus*(1-trans1) + xMinTotal*trans1
    plt.xlim(xMin-0.1, xMax+0.1+1*trans1)
    plt.ylim(yMinFocus*(1-trans1) + yMinTotal*trans1, yMaxFocus*(1-trans1) + yMax*trans1+0.03*trans1)
    plt.text(0.02, 0.89, '%i - %i'%(xMin, x[iMax-1]), transform=plt.gca().transAxes, fontsize=20)
    plt.title('Vermeindlicher Stillstand der Erwärmung')
    plt.xlabel('Jahr')
    plt.ylabel('Relative globale Temperatur (°C)')
    plt.gca().yaxis.set_label_coords(-0.13, 0.5)
    if showTrend: leg = plt.legend(frameon=False, loc='lower right')
    fig.subplots_adjust(
        top=0.9,
        bottom=0.13,
        left=0.15,
        right=0.95,
        hspace=0.2,
        wspace=0.2
    )
    fig.canvas.draw()
    s, (width, height) = fig.canvas.print_to_buffer()
    images.append(numpy.array(list(s), numpy.uint8).reshape((height, width, 4)))
    fig.clf()
    plt.close('all')

# Save GIF animation
fileOut = 'Vermeindlicher_Stillstand_der_globalen_Erwaermung.gif'
imageio.mimsave(fileOut, images, duration=duration)

# Optimize GIF size
from pygifsicle import optimize
optimize(fileOut, colors=20)

Licensing edit

I, the copyright holder of this work, hereby publish it under the following license:
Creative Commons CC-Zero This file is made available under the Creative Commons CC0 1.0 Universal Public Domain Dedication.
The person who associated a work with this deed has dedicated the work to the public domain by waiving all of their rights to the work worldwide under copyright law, including all related and neighboring rights, to the extent allowed by law. You can copy, modify, distribute and perform the work, even for commercial purposes, all without asking permission.

File history

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Date/TimeThumbnailDimensionsUserComment
current22:10, 30 January 2024Thumbnail for version as of 22:10, 30 January 2024509 × 370 (541 KB)Physikinger (talk | contribs)Update 2023
20:47, 17 April 2023Thumbnail for version as of 20:47, 17 April 2023509 × 370 (533 KB)Physikinger (talk | contribs)Shorter red line
18:32, 13 April 2023Thumbnail for version as of 18:32, 13 April 2023509 × 370 (532 KB)Physikinger (talk | contribs)Extrapolation, Timing
20:54, 12 April 2023Thumbnail for version as of 20:54, 12 April 2023509 × 370 (523 KB)Physikinger (talk | contribs)Update 2022, single zoom transition
12:45, 7 September 2021Thumbnail for version as of 12:45, 7 September 2021509 × 370 (518 KB)Physikinger (talk | contribs)Remove additional frame
12:35, 7 September 2021Thumbnail for version as of 12:35, 7 September 2021509 × 370 (532 KB)Physikinger (talk | contribs)Smaller file size
22:05, 6 September 2021Thumbnail for version as of 22:05, 6 September 2021509 × 370 (643 KB)Physikinger (talk | contribs)Fixed label, less colors
20:40, 31 August 2021Thumbnail for version as of 20:40, 31 August 2021509 × 370 (892 KB)Physikinger (talk | contribs)Larger font
14:30, 28 August 2021Thumbnail for version as of 14:30, 28 August 2021509 × 370 (856 KB)Physikinger (talk | contribs)Uploaded own work with UploadWizard

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