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File:A prototype expert system to forecast typhoon conditions at Cubi Point, Philippines (IA prototypeexperts00haga).pdf

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A prototype expert system to forecast typhoon conditions at Cubi Point, Philippines   (Wikidata search (Cirrus search) Wikidata query (SPARQL)  Create new Wikidata item based on this file)
Author
Hagaman, Bruce M.
image of artwork listed in title parameter on this page
Title
A prototype expert system to forecast typhoon conditions at Cubi Point, Philippines
Publisher
Monterey, California: U.S. Naval Postgraduate School
Description
Thesis advisor: Elsberry, Russell L
"September 1988."
Thesis (M.S. in Meteorology and Oceanography) :
Includes bibliographic references (p. 79-80)
A prototype expert system is designed to forecast the tropical cyclone related winds that may be used to set Conditions of Readiness (COR) at Cubi Point, Philippines. One set of rules modifies the storm position and strength forecasts to account for terrain interactions while crossing the Philippines. A second set estimates the local winds given the modified storm position and intensity. Tests using an independent storm set indicate the terrain-modified positions are comparable in accuracy to current Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecasts. However, the reduction of storm intensity due to terrain is underestimated and the westward translation of the storm is reduced too much. Finally, the conservative strategy of using worst-case wind gust estimates also contributes to an overprediction of the local winds and thus the COR. COR estimates are only 32% accurate, with a 95% capture rate for winds over 35 kt but a 70% false alarm rate due to overforecast of winds under 35 kt. More dynamic/statistical study appears to be required to refine the terrain- modification algorithm. Empirical rules form expert forecaster should be included in future systems. Theses. (fr)

Subjects: WEATHER FORECASTING; TYPHOONS
Language en_US
Publication date 1 September 1988, 00:00:00
Current location
IA Collections: navalpostgraduateschoollibrary; fedlink; americana
Accession number
prototypeexperts00haga
Notes No copyright page found.
Authority file  OCLC: 1051743422
Source
Internet Archive identifier: prototypeexperts00haga
https://archive.org/download/prototypeexperts00haga/prototypeexperts00haga.pdf

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Public domain
This work is in the public domain in the United States because it is a work prepared by an officer or employee of the United States Government as part of that person’s official duties under the terms of Title 17, Chapter 1, Section 105 of the US Code. Note: This only applies to original works of the Federal Government and not to the work of any individual U.S. state, territory, commonwealth, county, municipality, or any other subdivision. This template also does not apply to postage stamp designs published by the United States Postal Service since 1978. (See § 313.6(C)(1) of Compendium of U.S. Copyright Office Practices). It also does not apply to certain US coins; see The US Mint Terms of Use.
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current17:26, 6 July 2020Thumbnail for version as of 17:26, 6 July 20201,189 × 1,572, 106 pages (5.19 MB)Fæ (talk | contribs)FEDLINK - United States Federal Collection prototypeexperts00haga (User talk:Fæ/IA books#Fork8) (batch 1987-1989 #5404)

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