Identifier: economiccyclesth00moor (find matches)
Title: Economic cycles: their law and cause
Year: 1914 (1910s)
Authors: Moore, Henry Ludwell
Subjects: Depressions Agriculture -- Economic aspects Supply and demand
Publisher: New York : The Macmillan Company
Contributing Library: University of California Libraries
Digitizing Sponsor: MSN

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calperiod of growth divided by the number of months mak-ing up the critical period. In case of hay, for example,the critical period of growth is March, April, May,June. The mean effective rainfall for any given yearwould be the total rainfall for the four months, March,April, May, June, divided by the number of the months.If the mean effective monthly rainfall for the severalcrops is summed for each year and divided by the num-ber of crops, a measure is obtained of the mean effectivemonthly rainfall for the crops taken all together. InTable IV of the Appendix to this chapter the meaneffective rainfall of the several crops, and of the cropstaken all together, is tabulated for each of the years1870-1910. We have now an index of the fluctuation of crops andan index of the mean effective rainfall of the criticalperiods of the crops. The correlation between thetwo series is r = .584. In Figure 14 are traced the graphs 54 Economic Cycles: Their Law and Cause Index of flu cfua tion of crops.
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/lPj.uiej /(jLi4.uouj 3ai4.03jI^s ups^a^ Rainfall and the Crops 55 of the compound cycles that describe the two series,each graph consisting of two cycles and their semi-harmonics, a thirty-three years cycle describing theground-swell and the smaller cycle of eight years sum-marizing the minor cyclical movements. The measureof the degree of fit to the observations is, in case of theyield curve, K =2.46, and in case of the rainfall curve,K = 1.68. The yield curve reproduces the generalcharacteristic features of the rainfall curve. Our findings with reference to the crops taken to-gether are similar to what we discovered in case of thesingle crops: The yield per acre and the rainfall of thecritical season are highly correlated; the rhythmicalmovements of the yield and of the effective rainfallmay be accurately described by a compound cycle ofthirty-three years and eight years with their semi-harmonics; and the yield curve reproduces the generalcharacteristics of the curve of effective r

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